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[E385]Fudge-ocracy|经济学人

2016-03-27 LearnAndRecord

本文音频及原文摘自杂志The Economist《经济学人》2016年第13期,Finance and economics版块。

Chinese economic data

The way to get ahead in China is to manipulate statistics

Mar 26th 2016 | SHANGHAI

IN THEORY[1] Chinese officials receive promotions[2] based on their performance against a range of targets: delivering strong growth[3], maintaining social stability[4] and, until recently, enforcing the one-child policy[5]. But scholars debate whether the system really rewards those who excel according to these (in any case flawed) metrics[6]. Some believe the emphasis on merit[7] is real, and helps explain China’s stunning economic progress over the past 35 years. Others reckon that[8] connections to the right leaders matter more for those trying to advance their careers[9]. New research, however, suggests a third option: that those who get ahead[10] are adept[11] not at stimulating growth[12] nor at currying favour[13], but at cooking the books[14].

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注释

[1]理论上

[2]获得晋升

[3](经济)实现强劲增长//deliver economic growth

[4]保持社会安定;维护社会稳定

[5]执行/实施独生子女政策

[6]学者对这一制度是否能真正根据这些(多少都有缺陷的)指标来奖励完成度好的官员而表示质疑。

[7]merit 优点;价值;功绩

[8]reckon (to think or believe) 想;认为,以为 

I reckon it's going to rain.

我觉得天要下雨了。

[9]其他人认为,跟对的领导搞好关系比发展自己的事业更重要。

[10]get ahead 取得进展;获得成功

(to be successful in the work that you do)

It's tough for a woman to get ahead in politics.

一个女性在政界获得成功是很困难的。

[11]be adept at 擅长于,精于,善于

[12]stimulate growth促进增长;刺激(经济)增长;刺激(经济)发展,拉动经济

[13]curry favour (尤指对当权者)讨好,奉承,拍马屁

(to praise someone, especially someone in authority, in a way that is not sincere, in order to get some advantage for yourself)

He's always trying to curry favour with the boss.

他总是想方设法拍老板马屁。

[14]cook the books (尤指为偷钱而)篡改账目

(to keep false financial records for an organization)

(to change numbers dishonestly in the accounts (= financial records) of an organization, especially in order to steal money from it)

做假账,伪造账目,伪造(或窜改)财务报表

生词

stunning ['stʌnɪŋ]

 or very 

震惊;惊讶All the  have a stunning .所有的想法都简单得出奇。

  or 

极漂亮的,极迷人的a stunning  漂亮的连衣裙a stunning  over the  of Saint Tropez俯瞰圣特罗佩湾的迷人景色

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A recent paper from America’s National Bureau of Economic Research[1] uses fertility rates[2] as a way to test this theory. Economists have found a relationship between GDP growth in an official’s fiefdom and subsequent promotion[3], but it is difficult to know how accurate the GDP figures are (a question that haunts anyone following the Chinese economy). Population data are different: in addition to the figures provided by local officials, China conducts a census every ten years[4], revising population data all the way down to the village level. That makes it possible to pinpoint where bureaucrats[5] have been fiddling the statistics.

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注释

[1]NBER美国全国经济研究所

[2]fertility rates 生育率;人口出生率

[3]fiefdom(=fief) 封地,采邑

(an area of land, especially one that is rented and paid for by work)

经济学家发现了官员所管辖地区的GDP增长和官员后续的晋升之间存在一定的关系。

[4]census 人口普查(每10年一次)

[5]bureaucrat 官僚

生词

haunt [hɔːnt]

to    or 

使经常苦恼;不断困扰Fighting in Vietnam was an  that would haunt him for the  of his .越南战争的经历给他日后的生活留下了挥之不去的阴影。Thirty  after the  he is still haunted by  of  and .那场火灾过去30年之后,死亡和毁灭的场景仍在他脑海中挥之不去。

pinpoint ['pɪnpɒɪnt]

to  out or say the   in  or  of something

准确指出,确定(位置或时间)It is not  to pinpoint  the  of .准确地确定死亡时间是不可能的。

to  or  the   about something

查明;准确描述Emergency  at the  are still  to pinpoint the  of the .现场的急救人员仍然无法确定爆炸的原因。

fiddle ['fɪd(ə)l]

to   in  to get something for yourself, or to  something ,  to  

(尤指为个人利益而)用诡计获得,篡改,伪造She  to fiddle a   to .她想办法骗取了一趟去美国的免费旅行。He had been fiddling the // for .多年来他一直在伪造账目/账簿/财务状况

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Examining data on 967 mayors in 28 provinces from 1985 to 2000, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Xiao Yu Wang of Duke University[1] and Shuang Zhang of University of Colorado, Boulder[2], find that officials who claimed to have suppressed population growth[3] were rewarded. Mayors who reduced the local birth rate by one child per 1,000 people per year by their own count had a 10% greater chance of being promoted.

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注释

[1]Duke University杜克大学

[2]University of Colorado, Boulder 科罗拉多大学博尔德分校

[3]suppress population growth抑制/控制人口增长

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But the relationship between fertility rates and career trajectory[1] disappears when using the census data rather than the figures reported by the local officials themselves[2]. Mayors who received promotions were no better or worse at curbing population growth[3] than those who did not. The way to get ahead in the Chinese bureaucracy, it seems, is to falsify statistics[4]. It makes you wonder what other data have been doctored[5].

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注释

[1]career trajectory职业轨迹

[2]如果用人口普查的数据而不是当地官员发布的数据来研究的话,就找不出出生率和官员职业轨迹之间的关系了。

[3]curb population growth

   =上文的suppress population growth

[4]falsify statistics伪造统计数据

    =上文的fiddle the statistics

    =cook the books

    =下文的doctor[熟词僻义]

生词

doctor ['dɒktə]

to  a  in  to  

窜改,涂改He was  to have  the  with doctored .他被发现向法庭提供了窜改过的证据。

to  put a  or   into  or

下(毒),投(毒)Bottles of  doctored with   were  in the .厨房里发现了几瓶掺了老鼠药的柠檬汁。

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以上言论不代表本人立场。

原文摘自《经济学人》,仅外语学习之用。

其中生词解释来源于Cambridge Dictionaries

回复“eco”查看《经济学人》系列学习笔记。

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